Articles & research notes.
A running archive of pieces on markets, geopolitics, energy, and valuation work.
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N° 09
8 Jun 2026LatAm Energy · Argentina · Equity Research
Vista Energy SOTP — The Pure-Play Vaca Muerta Discount
The market values Vista as an Argentine country-risk proxy. At ~$11.2bn EV on 588 MMboe of proved reserves and ~1,954 identified locations, the current price is paid for proved reserves — the inventory runway is nearly free. The NAV Gap — Issue II.
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N° 08
1 Jun 2026LatAm Energy · Colombia · Equity Research
Ecopetrol SOTP — The ISA Premium Buried Inside a Colombian Oil Multiple
The market prices Ecopetrol as a single Colombian political-risk asset. It is three businesses — and the conglomerate discount applies a Colombian premium to Brazilian, Chilean, and Peruvian regulated transmission. Quantifying the leakage. The NAV Gap — Issue I.
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N° 07
25 May 2026LatAm Macro · Brazil · Multi-Asset
Brazil's October Election — The Most Mispriced Binary in Emerging Markets
At 9.3× P/E and SELIC at 15%, the spread between Lula continuity and a right-of-center transition is dramatically underpriced across equities, FX, sovereign credit, and local rates simultaneously.
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N° 06
18 May 2026LatAm Energy · Macro · Project Finance
Argentina's $25 Billion Vaca Muerta Bet — The RIGI Era Begins
YPF's largest-ever RIGI application is not an oil story. It is Argentina's most credible attempt yet to redesign its external sector — and markets are still underestimating it.
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N° 05
11 May 2026Critical Minerals · Energy Transition · Capital Markets
The Bankability Crisis: Why Critical Minerals Projects Keep Failing — and It Has Nothing to Do with Demand
China controls refining in 19 of 20 strategic minerals at 70% average market share. Albemarle wrote down $1.3B on its flagship Western refinery. November 2026 is a real deadline. The bottleneck is midstream, not supply or demand.
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N° 04
4 May 2026Geopolitics · Energy · Emerging Markets
What Project Freedom Means for Global Energy Markets and Emerging Economies
The U.S. Navy is escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is shooting back. Brent is above $110. The market consequences extend well beyond the oil price.
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N° 03
22 Apr 2026Geopolitics · Energy
Hormuz Premium: Pricing the Tail Risk in Energy Markets
A 30-day Strait of Hormuz disruption is not a base case, but the option value of the scenario is mispriced. Three vectors argue for a structural premium to current Brent.
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N° 02
11 Apr 2026Markets · Strategy
Defensive Rotation: Why Quality Outperforms Late-Cycle
Earnings dispersion is widening while real rates stall. High-quality compounders extend their relative lead in the final third of the cycle.
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N° 01
28 Mar 2026Equities · Valuation
SOTP Re-rating: The Conglomerate Discount in LatAm Holdings
A sum-of-the-parts walk through a regional industrial holding company. The consolidated multiple obscures a 35% discount to NAV.